Here is an example of getting to a condition assessment with limited data using power point slides.  Note that where there are categorical variables (type of pipe for example), these need to be converted to separate yes/no questions as mixing.  Categorical and numerical variable do not provide appropriate comparisons = hence the need to alter.  Take a look – but the concept is to predict how well this model explains the break history on this distribution system.  Call me and we can try it on yours….

Step 1  Create a table of assets (this is a small piece of a much larger table).

Asset Dia
water main 2
water main 2
water main 2
water main 2
water main 4
water main 6
water main 6
water main 6
water main 6


Step 2  Create columns for the variables for which you have data (age, material, soil type, groundwater level, depth, traffic, trees, etc.)


Asset breaks in 10 year Dia Age soil traffic Trees depth pressure material Filed estimate of cond.ition
water main 17 2 45 1 1 2 1 55 4 3
water main 11 2 45 2 1 2 1 55 4 3
water main 12 2 45 1 1 2 1 55 4 3
water main 10 2 45 1 1 2 1 55 4 3
water main 2 4 50 1 1 2 1 55 1 2
water main 3 6 60 2 2 2 1 55 1 2
water main 1 6 60 2 2 2 1 55 1 2
water main 1 6 60 2 2 2 1 55 1 2
water main 0 6 20 1 1 2 1 55 3 1


Step 3  All variables should be numeric.  So descriptive variables like pipe material need to be converted to binary form – i.e. create a column for each material and insert a 1 or 0 for “yes” and “no.”

Step 4 Run Linear regression to determine factors associated with each and the amount of influence that each exerts.  The result will give you a series of coefficientcoefs:

Step 5 – Use this to predict where your breaks will likely be in the next 5-10 years.

Pred breaks

The process is time consuming but provides useful information on the system.  It needs to be kept up as things change, but exact data is not really needed.  And none of this requires destructive testing.  Not bad for having no information.


My apologies for being offline for a month. It has been very busy.  I got back from Utah, and it was tests, reports, etc.  Then Thanksgiving – we went to Disney for my stepdaughter.  Then the Florida Section AWWA conference, then student final design presentations with President Kelly present for some of it, then finals, then a trip to the west coast, then posting grades, then it’s now.  Crazy.  And my kitchen is being worked on -see the photos of what is left of it.   Not much, and Christmas is how far away.  Yikes.  At least the wrapping and chopping are 99% done!

In the meantime a lot has happened.  Congress cut SRF funding, but passed the transportation bill.  They passed WITAF, but provided minimal funding.  The debates roll on.  A recent South Park episode is all about illegal immigrants from Canada escaping, then there is a wall built, by the Canadian so t hose who left don’t come back, and then we find out who the new president in Canada looks like… well you just have to watch and be scared.  Very scared.  If you do not follow South Park, well you are just missing it.

Russia had a plane brought down by an apparent ISIS bomb.  The Egyptians deny it.  Too much arguing about was it or wasn’t it to garner much of an outcry.  Best wishes to the friends and families of the victims.  Then France had their 911 event sponsored by ISIS, and most of the world is sending their best wishes to the victims, the victims families and the French population.  In such events, most of the world comes together.  Everybody was French for a day.  Best wishes to the friends and families of the victims. Then the couple in California.  Best wishes to the friends and families of the victims. But it raises a very disconcerting question, and one fraught with far too many xenophobic concerns as ISIS and their allies like the Taliban, Boko Hiram and others continue to reign terror and violence on the rest of the world.  The xenophobic response will be – whom do we trust in the Muslim world?  If you don’t believe in blowback, listen to the debates.  One commentator points out the xenophobia may actually help ISIS (Donald are you listening?).  LOL – of course not.  But utilities should expect another round of security costs and analyses in the future.

The Florida Section conference was great.  The venue was great (Renaissance at Sea World).  The program garnered a lot of buzz and comments.  Who knew at a water conference that potable reuse would be the big topic?  I also won two awards at the Florida Section conference – a best paper award and the Alan B. Roberts award for Outstanding Service by a member.  Wow!!  I am humbled.  A lot of great utility folks were present at the FSAWW conference.  It is a great event for the water industry (that includes wastewater, storm water etc.).  The technical program is designed to be good, timely and useful to those that attend.  While all utilities struggle with costs, please make time to send your folks if possible.  The training cost is reasonable for what you get and who you meet.

My students did well on tests and presentations.  President Kelly was impressed with their presentations and projects at the Dean’s Design Showcase.  We have never had the Dean at student presentations, let alone the President of the University.  My sincere appreciation to him, his staff and those that made it happen.  The students were pleased and impressed.  And they are getting jobs easily.  You can tell people are building and working on infrastructure as most of the graduates get jobs right away, if they don’t have them already.

Grading and the west coast went well.  The Fort Myers News Press-Sunday Headline was “Where has all the water gone” – a discussion on how groundwater is depleting across the country including south Florida which gets 60 inches of rain.  But the article points out what that climate, rainfall, recharge and other factors have been altered in south Florida as a result of development.  We really do make an impact and it is affecting utilities today. This follows another article last week on depleted groundwater around the world.  I have lots of photos in my travels from the air – groundwater use is highest where surface waters are limited – i.e. dry areas.  Except in dry areas, the groundwater does not recharge.  I had a student do a project for his master’s degree that estimated that groundwater depletion is a measureable percentage of sea level rise.  More to come on that.

Next the kitchen.  I will post photos in another blog.

As I said, a busy month.

As technology advances I have an observation, and a question that needs to be asked and answered.  And this could be a pretty interesting question.  Back in the day, say 100 or 150 years ago, there were not so many people.  Many activities occurred where there were few people and impacts on others were minimal.  In some cases ecological damage was significant, but we were not so worried about that because few people were impacted by that ecological damage.  In the 20th century, in urban locations, the impact of one’s activities on others became the basis for zoning laws – limiting what you could do with your property because certain activities negatively impacted others.  And we certainly had examples of this – Cuyahoga River burning for one.  Of course this phenomenon of zoning and similar restrictions was mostly an urban issue because there potential to impact others was more relevant in urban areas.  We also know that major advances in technology and human development tend to occur in population centers (think Detroit for cars, Pittsburgh and Cleveland for steel, Silicon Valley, etc.).  People with ideas tend to migrate to urban areas, increasing the number of people and the proximity to each other.  Universities, research institutions, and the like tend to grow up around these industries, further increasing the draw of talent to urban areas.  The observation is that urban areas tend to have more restrictions on what people do than rural areas.  So the question – do people consciously make the migration to urban areas realizing that the migration for the potential financial gain occur with the quid pro quo of curbing certain freedoms to do as you please?  Of does this artifact occur once they locate to the urban areas?  And is there a lack of understanding of the need to adjust certain activities understood by the rural community, or does it become yet another point of philosophical or political contention?  I have blogged previously about the difference between rural and urban populations and how that may affect the approach of utilities, but read a recent article that suggests that maybe urban citizens accept that financial gains potential of urban areas outweighs the need to limit certain abilities to do as you please to better the entire community.  They are motivated by potential financial opportunities that will increase their standing and options in the future.  So does that mean urban dwellers understand the financial tradeoff differently than rural users?  Or is it a preference issue.  And how does this translate to providing services like water to rural customers, who often appear to be more resistant to spending funds for improvements?  While in part their resistance may be that their incomes tend to be lower, but is their community benefit concern less – i.e. they value their ability to do as they please more than financial opportunities or the community good?  I have no answer, but suggest that this needs some further study since the implications may be significant as rural water systems start to approach their life cycle end.

A past project I was involved  with involved a look at the feasibility of using wastewater to recharge the Biscayne aquifer In the vicinity of a utility’s potable water supply wells.  The utility was feeling the effects of restrictions on added water supplies, while their wastewater basically unused.  So they wanted a test to see if the wastewater could be cleaned up enough to pump it in the ground for recovery downstream, with the intent of getting added allocations of raw water.  Assuming the water quality issues could be resolved, the increased recovery would solve a number of water resource issues for them, and the cost was not nearly as high as some thought.

So we tested and using sand filters, microfiltration, reverse osmosis, peroxide and ultraviolet light, we were successful in meeting all regulatory criteria for water quality.  The water produced was basically pure water – not constituents in it, and therefore it exceeded all drinking water standards.  We demonstrated that technologically the water CAN be cleaned up.  The only issue is insurance that the treatment will always work – hence multiple barriers and the ground.  This was an indirect potable reuse project and ended because of the 2008 recession and the inability to of current water supply rules to deal with the in/out recovery issues.

The indirect reuse part was the pumping of the water into the ground for later withdrawal as raw water to feed a water treatment plant, as opposed to piping it directly to the head of their water plant.   But recovery of the water can be a challenge and there is a risk that a portion of the injected water is lost.  In severely water limited environments, loss of the supply may not be an acceptable outcome.  Places like Wichita Falls, Texas have instead pursued more aggressive projects that skip the pumping to the ground and go straight into the water plant as raw water.  Technologically the water CAN be treated so it is safe to drink.  The water plant is simply more treatment (added barriers).  So, with direct potable projects, monitoring water quality on a continuous basis maybe the greatest operational challenge, but technologically there is no problem as we demonstrated in our project.

The problem is the public.  You can hear it already – we are drinking “pee” or “poop water” or “drinking toilet water.”  The public relations tasks is a much bigger challenge because those opposed to indirect and direct potable projects can easily make scary public statements.   Overcoming the public relations issue is a problem, but what utilities often fail to convey is that many surface waters are a consolidations of a series of waste flows – agriculture, wastewater plants, etc. by the time they reach the downstream water intake.  Upstream wastewater plants discharge to downstream users.   But the public does not see the connection between upstream discharges and downstream intakes even where laws are in effect that actually require the return of wastewater to support streamflow.  So are rivers not also indirect reuse projects? In truth we have been doing indirect potable reuse for, well ever.

We have relied on conventional water plants for 100+ years to treat surface waters to make the water drinkable.  The problem is we have never educated the public on what the raw waters sources were, and how effective treatment is.  Rather we let the political pundits and others discuss concerns with chemicals like fluoride and chlorine being added to the water as opposed the change in water quality created by treatment plants and the benefits gained by disinfectants.  That message is lost today.  We also ignore the fact that the number one greatest health improvement practice in the 20th century was the introduction of chlorine to water.  Greater than all other medical and vaccine advances (although penicillin and polio vaccines might be a distant second and third above others).   Somehow that fact gets lost in the clutter.

Already the Water Reuse Association and Water Research Foundations have funded 26 projects on direct potable reuse.  Communicating risk is one of the projects.  The reason is to get in front of the issues.  You see, playing defense in football is great and you can sometimes win championships with a good defense (maybe a historically great one, but even they gamble).  Defense does not work that way in public relations.  Offense usually wins. Defenses often crumble or take years to grab hold.

The failure of utilities to play offense, and the failure of elected officials particularly support playing offense is part of the reason we struggle for funds to make upgrades in infrastructure, to perform enough maintenance or to gather sufficient reserves to protect the enterprise today.  And it remains a barrier to tomorrow.   Leadership is what is missing.  It struck me that when looking at leaders, what made them leaders was their ability to facilitate change.  Hence President Obama’s campaign slogan.  But talking about change and making real changes are a little more challenging (as he has seen).  You cannot lead without a good offense, one that conveys the message to the public and one that gets buy-in.  With direct and indirect potable reuse, the water industry has not changed the perception of “toilet water.”  That needs to change.  We need to be frank with our customers.  Their water IS SAFE to drink.  They do not need filters, RO systems, softeners, etc., or buy bottled water, when connected to potable water supplies (private wells, maybe).  We CAN treat wastewater to make it safe, and the technology tis available to make it potable.  . The value they pay for water is low.  Yet in all cases, others, have made in-roads to counter to the industry.  That happened because we play defense.

I got hacked again this past week.  I had the week nicely structured to stay in my office and get lots of work done.  Things I had been trying to complete for the past couple week.  This is the second time I have been hacked with this computer and I have only owned it for 3 months.  So the first hack involved someone diverting my email for 6 hours.  I could not get it back, but I stopped the diversion (I think) with the help of ATT.  Who knows what information was transmitted other than a lots of what is really spam.

Ok, so then I start getting these phone calls from “Microsoft Windows” noting errors they are receiving from my computer.  Now most you recall that Microsoft used to ask if you wanted them to be notified of errors, but since everyone said yes, they now just do it automatically.  Mostly the “Microsoft Windows” guys left messages on my cell phone since that is the number registered with Microsoft.  I picked up the phone one time, but the “Microsoft Windows” guy could not tell me which of my computers was sending the messages (I have more than one).

But that did not stop the calls which have accelerated of late.  So I get another call that I answer (from a number in Washington state) from “Martin” with “Microsoft Windows”  who, without accessing my computer, knows over 9,000 errors had been sent, starting the day I bought the computer.  He also knows the software serial information, computer serial numbers, etc., all of which he can recite over the phone and ask me to check to verify he is with “Microsoft Windows” because otherwise he would not have that information.  And then he notes that because the 25 digit codes for Windows 8 is not visible, “Microsoft” will cause a key lock on my computer – a message that I again could verify without him accessing the computer.  And of course that’s how he tries to convince me he is calling from “Microsoft Windows.”

NOTE:  Miscrosoft DOES NOT Call you – it is a scam (see the internet).  So I have the hacker on the phone.  He emails me his info (of course he has my registered email like everything else), which I note says, not “Microsoft Windows.” I asked and I was suddenly disconnected.  And within the hour, the computer is locked.  Clearly the acceleration of calls was because the hackers knew about the key lock because they installed it and they want to get to the last minute.  Now Martin called back about 20 times in the next 2 hours trying get me, but the number he left is not valid (despite his website listing it). And of course he will fix the problem for $239 plus whatever else he can sell you.  That’s the hacker scam – create a problem than get you to pay to fix it.

And when it locks – the result is a window that asks for Startup password – which Microsoft will tell you, indicates you have been hacked.  Except, then Microsoft says they need the 25 digit code for the operating software to fix your computer.  “But you need to get that from Dell” even though Dell only loads the software – you need to register it with Microsoft to make it work.  So I called Dell, and the first person says sure they can give it to you, but the second “no they need to send CDs.”

OK they are both wrong.  With Windows 8.1 the code is not on your computer if pre-loaded.  And of course Dell does not give you a recovery disk when you buy it.  Dell knows about the code.  So does Microsoft.  So an hour plus wasted there with two good organizations who clearly do not communicate.  So I am shut out of the new computer and the email.

Good news though is that maybe 10 years ago I was advised by Gateway (the old cow computers) to use to fix a prior issue.  So 13 hours later and lots of time with Amit, we are sort of back up running.  And of course iyogi knows about the code issue that Dell and Microsoft mis-advised me on and told me the story above.  And yet we both wondered how (the hackers) was tracking my computer error messages to Microsoft from day 1?  Have they hacked Microsoft?  Dell?

And the next day one of my friends, in talking about this says – “Hey wait, I keep having pop-ups for pcsync on my computer also.”  And later in the day, another says the same thing –“ pcsync is on mine too.”  And neither has a Dell – but they do have Microsoft Windows 7 or later.  And makes me wonder, who is taking responsibility for protecting the consumers here?  Clearly the computer manufacturers do not take responsibility.  Maybe they can’t.  Microsoft doesn’t appear to either, so that leaves us . . . . . vulnerable.  Mr. Gates you have a great operating system, but this problem costs us lost productivity, money, time, irritation…even when you have all kinds of anti-maleware and anti-virals on your computer.  If the hackers can get in day 1, how do you stop that?  And apparently the maleware doesn’t see it (hint).

So the questions:

  • Does “Microsoft Windows” know about this?
  • If so, why have they not fixed it?
  • Do the computer manufacturers know this issue occurs?
  • Why have they not talked to Microsoft about it?
  • Why doesn’t the maleware address it?
  • How are they getting in?
  • Is Microsoft hacked – perhaps the biggest hack of all?
  • And why have the internet police addressed pcsync and their ilk? It is all over the internet!!!!!

Clearly the penalties for hacking are not nearly severe enough.  And from a law enforcement and cyber security perspective, we clearly lack the resources to protect individuals, so beware!

And if you see pcsync – call iyogi or someone who can help.  Quickly!!

It’s February already!  Where has the year gone?  My apologies for a January without posts.  Things have been busy here and well, blogging got put on the back burner for me with the new semester starting and a new class to design.  But interesting kernels from January:

The World is Trying to Kill You – Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson

If you have a 20% failure rate, does that make a speculative technology a waste of time?  Conversely if your success is 20% is it successful?   I think no and no.

Have you noticed that February is the month we have been getting the worst winter weather in the Midwest and northeast? Not December or January?  I used to shovel snow all January and wait for the February respite.

Killer whales are now a protected species.  What does that say about the killer whales as SeaWorld?

There is a honeybee crisis.  No really, a real one.  Not the Jerry Seinfeld movie.  But the lesson is the same.  No bees, no food.  We need to figure out how we are killing them.  No doubt when we find out it will come back on pesticides, herbicides, monocultures, some combination of the above.  Not a good thing for farming.

The bison are under attack again in Montana.  Maybe Mother Nature is trying to tell us something – buffalo want to roam to their winter grazing fields.   And no brucelliosis, the issue rancher bring up as to why the bison are bad, has still NEVER been transmitted from bison to cattle.  Bison are way better on the land since there hooves are much large and they do not compact the ground as much.  But they are not as stupid as cattle.  They know they can walk thought a barbed wire fence.  They are bison afterall!

A Utah rancher shot and killed Echo, the female wolf that made it to the Grand Canyon last summer and became a national story.  He thought she was a coyote.  Um, I think wolves are a little bit bigger than coyotes.  We have a man with a gun who can’t tell what he’s shooting.  What could possibly go wrong with that?

Then there is the bear hunt in Florida because people move closer to the woods and cannot figure out how to secure their garbage of close their garage doors.  Bears get killed.  People…..


Miami Beach installed $40 million dollars in pumps last summer, with an expected $300 million for.  The nearshore nutrient concentrations increased dramatically (a factor of six), which could adversely impact beach quality, fishing and reefs.  Unintended consequences, but an issue was brought up as a potential concern.

There is a recent iPos MORI study that evaluated the perception and reality of issues in 14 western, industrialized countries to determine how well the perception of the populace matched reality.  The US was one of those surveyed.  No surprise, most Americans’ perception is very different than reality because the news and politics get in the way of the facts.  The study found for example that Americans perceived that teenage birth rates were 24 % of girls vs the real number of 3%, that 32% of the population is immigrants vs 13% actual, and that the majority of people perceiving welfare were black vs. the reality of 39% (38% are white and 15% Hispanic).  The states with the largest number of welfare recipients are in the northeast, which are also the states that received the smallest amount of federal funding per capita.  Talk about misperceptions.

While other countries have similar misperceptions, perpetuating misconceptions is part of the extreme discourse in Congress and among different constituencies. When we perceive the issues incorrectly and our elected officials do nothing to improve that perception?  What does that say about them?  No wonder we cannot get infrastructure to the top of our funding needs?  They perceive if you get water, can drive on it or flush it away, things must be fine?

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