The world population is expected to grow to over 9 billion by 2050, an exponential trend that has continued for several hundred years and see no end it site. Megaregions as people flock to cities and industry will be commonplace. The question is how will water supplies be impacted, or impact this trend. Interestingly it varies everywhere. For example, China and India are not expected to reap major benefits from climate changes, so their economies will grow as will populations. They continue to construct coal fired power plants, and impact carbon dioxide and pollution levels, which does not help the climate issues. Recall that Beijing was basically shut down for several days recent due to smog – seems like I recall the first air pollution regulations stemming from Henry the VIII decision to move the coal plants out of London during his reign 500 years ago because of pollution, but perhaps we need to relearn history J. Of course China and India are expected to be less affected than the more historically developed countries in the northern latitudes that have been moving to renewable and less impactful power solutions with good reason. Aside from these two economies, the rest of the northern latitudes are likely to see changes in temperature, variation in precipitation patterns and drought frequency changes. That has major impacts for a billion people who will see water supply shortages occur much more often, and create a whole host of “winners” and “losers” in the water supply category. Conflicts may result from the need to change increase water supplies as desperation kicks in. Lawrence Smith, in his book 2050, suggests that while the far northern countries, the US, Russia, the Scandanavian countries, and Canada may see more land for agriculture and more water (at least in some areas), those warmer countries in the sub-Sahara, will become more desperate and dangerous to the world order. Water will be the new oil, and the tipping point for sustainability, akin to peak oil, needs to be developed. The cost will be significant, but the failure will be catastrophic to global economies. This is part of why the global pursuit of renewable power, local solutions and green jobs. It is why the definition of sustainable water supplies continues to evolve as we understand that the impacts, or the constraints of water supplies is far more reaching than most engineers and planners have traditionally dealt with. AWWA published a Sustainable Water CD several years ago. It was a series of papers of different aspects of sustainability as applied to water resources. The last paper summarized the findings and compared it to the initial paper discussion. The conclusion was the concept is evolving. Climate, power, agriculture, natural systems, local economies, local economic contributions to regional and national economies and politics all impact pure science recommendations for water supply allocation. The question is can we overcome the politics to create a optimized science solution to sustain water supplies and economies. An old Native American proverb comes to mind: We do not inherit the Earth from our grandparents, we borrow it from our grandchildren.
Leadership
Looking for Leadership
Hi all
I am in the process of trying to develop a project on leadership in the water industry, focusing of who our leaders are now (individual), how we develop new leaders, barrier and incentives for leadership and issues. I thought the 3 biggest issues in the water industry post a couple weeks back was great. Share and let’s see if we can gain some traction. Looking forward to hearing from you all
Sea Level Rise may Impact low lying areas faster than we think
One of the major issues involved with climate changes is sea level rise. Florida has experienced 9 inches of sea level rise since 1900. Projections are 2-3 feet by 2100, perhaps more. Modeling done by my students and I at FAU has demonstrated that in low lying areas, sea level rise will also impact groundwater levels, and accelerate inland flooding. The graphs above compare the traditional bathtub model used by most investigators and our adjusted for groundwater level model. You wee added inland areas of flooding which complicated storm water flooding issues much faster than sea level rise might indicate.
What do you believe are the three biggest water challenges in the U.S.? Part 2
This question has been asked a couple times on on-line discussion groups. It usually results in a short list of answers. In the last post, I outlined the number one answer – getting a handle on failing infrastructure. The next issue has to do with water supplies. You hear the argument that we need to get people to respect that drinking water as a limited resource, develop where water supplies are plentiful as opposed to arid regions that are water poor and protecting water sources instead of rendering it unusable in the process of using it. People (and their jobs) are moving to “more favorable” (read: warmer, more arid) climates, so people are now actually trying to grow rice and develop golf courses in the deserts of the Southwest US and complaining about “drought” conditions. The sustainability of groundwater supplies is often noted as a problem because much of the west relies on groundwater for agricultural irrigation. Having a 50 or 100 year management plan for an aquifer, which is how to insure there is water to last 50 or 100 years, is shortsighted, even though it doesn’t sound like it. Long term these areas could run out of water which will create significant economic impacts to these communities. More professionals should be involved in this discussion: regional growth planners; federal and state funders that offer ‘incentives’ to businesses to relocate their workers; city and county governments that accept these ‘incentives’ to beef up their budgets.
But just as cities market their community to developers and industry, it is interesting that marketing services is another issue. I had a conversation where an elected official said it was inappropriate for government to market. Yet the bottled water industry does, power companies do, and cell phone companies do. Utilities ignore the people that put fliers on houses asking our residents to take a sample of their water, and then attacking the quality of our drinking water by explaining that having calcium and chlorine in the water is bad, should have been addressed long ago. Of course calcium and chlorine are in the water! Chlorine disinfects the water and then keeps the distribution system clean (especially an issue in warmer climates with TOC in the water). Our public is uneducated and we have been out-marketed for scare dollars for 40 years. That is an elected official, but also a water official problem.
What do you believe are the three biggest water challenges in the U.S.?
This question has been asked a couple times on on-line discussion groups. It usually results in a short list of answers. The number one answer is usually getting a handle on failing infrastructure. The US built fantastic infrastructure systems that allowed our economy to grow and use to be productive, but like all tools and equipment, it degrades, or wears out with time. In addition, newer infrastructure is more efficient and works better. In many ways we are victims of our own success. People have grown used to the fact that water is abundant, cheap, and safe. Open the tap and here it comes. Flush the toilet and there it goes, without a thought as to what is involved to produce, treat and distribute potable water as well as to collect, treat, and discharge wastewater. Looking to the future, we should take education as one of our challenges. Our economy and out way of life requires access to high quality water and waste water. So this will continue to be critical. But utilities have not been proactive in explaining the condition of buried infrastructure in particular, and need more data. The same goes for roadways and many buildings.
Cities are sitting on crumbling systems that have suffered from lack of adequate funding to consistently maintain and upgrade. In part this is because some believe that clean drinking water is a right instead of a privilege to be paid for. We gladly pay hundreds of dollars per month for cable television and cell phones, but scream at the costs for water delivered to out tap. The discussion usually continues along the lines of utilities are funding at less than half the level needed to meet the 30 year demands while relying on the federal government, which is trying to get out of funding for infrastructure for local utilities. Utilities are a local issue which is some ways makes this easier. Our local leaders to send help with the education (after we educate them), send less money going to the general funds and more retained by utilities.
Perhaps where we have failed is in educating the public. Public agencies are almost always reactive, as opposed to pro-active, which is why we continuously end up in defensive positions and at the lower end of the spending priorities. So we keep deferring needed maintenance. The life cycle analysis concepts used in business would help. A 20 year old truck, pump, backhoe, etc just aren’t cost effective to operate and maintain. We are not very successful at getting this point across.
Money is an issue, and will always be, but the fact that local officials are not stressed about infrastructure is in part because utility personnel are very good at our jobs, minimizing disruptions and keeping the public safe. We are not “squeaky wheels” and we don’t market our product at all. Afterall, is cable or your phone really more valuable that water and sewer?
Who are our leaders and why?
Interestingly I asked this question on a recent on-line in response to a discussion topic. Interestingly the only comment was about companies, not people. Who are the people who are our leaders? We’ve seen some people in the past, but have we forgotten them? Are we too busy? And why did we not come up with names today? Is it that hard? Do we not take the time? Because without knowing our leaders, we can’t look for or train our next generation of leaders. We can’t see the innovative ideas, the understanding of new trends, or the risk issues that we need to overcome. We see some major issues in the coming years in the industry: Infrastructure condition, water quality deterioration and supplies are among them. The question is how to solve them. It is also what do we leave behind? If you are a person who wants to be a leader, there are a number of skills you need, and you need to be at the right place, at the right time. You also need to think about the long-term impacts of your plans/policies and actions. How will they be perceived 10 or 20 years out. How will your decisions impact the course of the organization? I remind elected officials that no one remembers the guy who refused to raise water bills (or taxes). But they do remember when infrastructure fails. The do recognize when thought was put into securing a water supply, treatment capacity or treatment processes to secure water quality.
The Way of the Wolverine
Last week, the headline in the morning newspaper and on-line news outlets report the most recent suggestions from the House of Representatives to cut the federal budget deficit involves major cuts to domestic programs. No surprise there. Among those that are proposed to be cut significantly is infrastructure investments. Infrastructure is what allows our country to thrive. Without water, sewer, roads, airports, ports, etc, the economy could not be as robust as it has been, and will not achieve its greatest output. The fact that our elected leaders don’t see infrastructure investment as a high priority is problematic. More problematic is that this appears to be an ongoing position of some in Congress, meaning there is likely more of this view at other levels of government. But it ignores that facts. This country has always grown after investments in infrastructure, not before. The federal government has been involved in infrastructure since the beginning of the country, and actually accelerated its involvement after WWII, including water and wastewater upgrades starting immediately after WWII. The monies to improve water and sewer systems increased after the passage of the Clean Water and Safe Drinking Water Acts. Recall that President Nixon, a conservative republican, sponsored the new federalism concept that greatly expanded the amount of federal block grants to local governments. In part this was due to the perceived need to help local governments catch up with improvements needed in connection with new federal rules, like the Clean Water Act and Safe Drinking Water act. The high point in federal aid for infrastructure.
The trend was reversed in mid-1980s, when most of the grant programs were converted to loan programs, with the idea that the federal government would wean the utility industry off federal entitlements within 30 years. The current concern over budget deficits and taxes further weakens the prospects of large scale federal flow –throughs to assist local governments with infrastructure upgrades, water and sewer included. Given that the current water and sewer needs exceed over $1 billion in the next 30 years, and current funding levels are expected to derive half that amount, the infrastructure needs gaps will continue to widen, with potentially more common failures in piping systems, and impacts to local economies. It is a viscous circle that needs to end, and one that can only have negative long-term effects for us. In part the issue is political will, but also the failure of non-elected executives to fully grasp the issue, and adopting the way of the wolverine – to fight and scrap, climb, scramble and investigate new means to defend what is their’s. The analogy is that utility personnel, and the upper management they report to, need to take “ownership” of their utilities infrastructure, and urge the decision-makers to do the same. We need to defend our infrastructure, and we have the means to do it. The time may be right to push this issue locally. The economy is looking up. Property values are starting to climb, and commercial activity is slowly creeping back. The result will be more tax money available to general funds, many of which have been living large off the utility system. Seems like this would be a good time to reverse that trend.
The failure to do so creates difficulties, not unlike those faced by wolverines today. The wolverine suffers from effects placed on it by others. There are only 500-1000 in the United States as opposed to the many that were here before hunting, farming and other development. A second “way of the wolverine” is decline because they cannot fix the problems caused by others. Unlike the wolverine, we have the power to prevent our decline. We need to do so.
Leadership with Water-Energy Nexus?
In our prior blog discussions the theme has been leadership. Vision is needed from leaders. In the water industry that vision has to do with sustainability in light of competing interests for water supplies, completion for funds, maintaining infrastructure and communicating the importance of water to customers. The need to fully to optimize management of water resources has been identified. The argument goes like this. Changes to the terrestrial surface decrease available recharge to groundwater and increase runoff. Urbanization increases runoff due to imperviousness from buildings, parking lots, and roads and highways that replace forest or grassland cover, leading to runoff at a faster rate (flooding) and the inability to capture the water as easily. In rural areas, increased evapotranspiration (ET) is observed in areas with large-scale irrigation, which lowers runoff and alters regional precipitation patterns. At the same time there are four competing sectors for water: agriculture (40% in the US), power (39% in the US), urban uses (12.7%) and other. Note the ecosystem is not considered.
New water supplies often have lesser quality than existing supplies, simply because users try to pick the best water that minimizes treatment requirements. But where water supplies and/or water quality is limited, energy demands rise, often to treat that water as well as serve new customers. For many non-industrial communities, the local water and wastewater treatment facilities are among the largest power users in a community. Confounding the situation is trying to site communities where there is not water because the power industry needs water and the residents will need water. It is a viscous cycle. When you have limited water supplies, that means your development should be limited. Your population and commercial growth cannot exceed the carrying capacity of the water supply, or eventually, you will run out. Drawing water from more distant place can work for a time, but what is the long-term impact. Remember the Colorado River no longer meets the ocean. Likewise the Rio Grande is a trickle when it hits the Gulf of Mexico As engineers, we can be pretty creative in coming up with ways to transfer water, but few ask if it is a good idea.
Likewise we can come up with solutions to treat water that otherwise could not be drunk, but, that may not always be the best of ideas. Adding to the challenge is that planning by drinking water, wastewater, and electric utilities occurs separately and is not integrated. Both sectors need to manage supplies for changes in demands throughout the year, but because they are planned for and managed separately, their production and use are often at the expense of the natural environment. Conflicts will inevitably occur because separate planning occurs (for a multitude of reasons, including tradition, regulatory limitations, ease, location, limited organizational resources, governance structure, and mandated requirements). However, as demands for limited water resources continue to grow in places that are water limited, and as pressures on financial resources increase, there are benefits and synergies that can be realized from integrated planning for both water and electric utilities and for their respective stakeholders and communities. The link between energy and water is important – water efficiency can provide a large savings for consumers and the utility. As a result, there is a need to move toward long-term, integrated processes, in which these resources are recognized as all being interconnected . Only then can the challenges to fully to optimize management of water resources for all purposes be identified.
Anybody have any good examples out there?
Energy Leadership in the Water Industry
Water and energy systems constitute the foundation for modern civilization around the world. Without water, societies never get started, and without power, it is difficult for economies to grow. At the same time, modern power generating equipment needs water for cooling and processes, creating an interdependency between water and energy infrastructure and potential for conflict over water resources. As a result, the Energy-Water Nexus is a topic of great interest and discussion among federal policy-making and regulatory entities; private and public sector water and electric utilities; state and local governments, and many supporting technical, educational, professional associations. At the nexus of water and energy exists a host of societal issues, policy and regulatory debates, environmental concerns (local and global), technological challenges, and economic impacts that must be balanced or optimized to permit ongoing economic development for all (NETL, 2008).
Estimates indicate that from 1950 to 1980, demands for water increased steadily across all sectors, with 1980 being the peak water use year. However, since 1980, withdrawals declined. Despite the overall decline, the built environment demands continued increase. This of course ignore the natural environment demands, which may play a large part in the economic stability of some regions. Unlike water demands, the total US power consumption continues to climb as a result of population increases. The US Census Bureau (2004) projects that the national population will increase from 282 million people in 2000 to 420 million by 2050. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) project, assuming the latest Census Bureau projections in its reference case, the U.S. population to grow by about 70 million in the next 25 years and electricity demand to grow by approximately 50 percent (EIA, 2006). More people, means more power. More power means more water for cooling unless all new power is solar or wind, something highly unlikely. On the current track, which suggests and expansion of fossil fuel plants, the power sector may be highly vulnerable to changes in water resources, especially those that are already occurring, and are likely to intensify, as result of climatic changes (Vorosmarty et al 2000, Bates et al 2008, Dai 2010, NETL 2010d).
Adding to the challenge is that planning by drinking water, wastewater, and electric utilities occurs separately and is not integrated. In the US, the energy sector uses 39% of the water withdrawals on an annual basis for cooling, immediately behind the 40% used by agriculture (Lisk et al, 2012; GAO, 2012). Urban demands (12.6% of water use – Sanders and Webber, 2012) require clean water supplies to protect public health. Both sectors need to manage supplies for changes in demands throughout the year, but because they are planned for and managed separately, their production and use are often at the expense of the environment (NREL, 2011). This separate planning occurs for a multitude of reasons, including tradition, regulatory limitations, ease, location, limited organizational resources, governance structure, and mandated requirements. However, as demands for limited water resources continue to grow among all sectors, and as pressures on financial resources increase, there are benefits and synergies that can be realized from integrated planning for both water and electric utilities and for their respective stakeholders and communities. The link between energy and water is important – water efficiency can provide a large savings for consumers and the utility. Reduced energy consumptions benefits the consumer – but should always be considered as one of the first steps (Gould, 2011). As a result, there is a need to move toward long-term, integrated processes, in which these resources are recognized as all being interconnected (NREL, 2011). Only then can the challenges to fully to optimize management of water resources for all purposes be identified (Scanlon et al 2005).
The lack of planning creates the situation where competition for water between agriculture, power and urban uses will reach a tipping point (or beyond in many basins) as an expected increase in thermoelectric capacity by electric utilities, and an increasing prevalence of droughts could induce possible water shortages. By 2025, Ciferno (2009) suggests the most vulnerable areas for water shortages are fast growing areas: Charlotte, NC, Chicago, IL, Queens, NY, Atlanta, GA, Dallas, TX; Houston, TX, San Antonio, TX, and San Francisco. Immediately behind these areas are Denver, CO; Las Vegas, NV; St Paul MN, and Portland OR (Ciferno,2009). Hightower (2009) notes that virtually all the states west of the Mississippi and many southeastern states will experience regional or statewide water shortages in the coming decade (2010-2020). The South and the Southwest are particularly vulnerable (Glassman, et al, 2011) because they rely on air conditioning to provide a comfortable environment, which requires more power for a growing population, requiring more water for cooling power plants.
These projections come with recent experience that is likely to foretell the future. The south, Texas and parts of the west have had repeated drought periods in recent history. During the summer and fall of 2007, a serious drought affected the southeastern United States. River flows decreased, and water levels in lakes and reservoirs dropped. In some cases, water levels were so low that power production at some power plants had to be stopped or reduced (Kimmel and Veil, 2009). The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Gallatin Fossil Plant is not permitted to discharge water used for cooling back into the Cumberland River due to thermal pollution (water > 90 F) (WSMV Nashville 2007; Kimmel and Veil, 2009; NETL 2009c). Nuclear and coal-fired plants within the TVA system were forced to shut down some reactors (e.g., the Browns Ferry facility in August 2007) and curtail operations at others. This problem has not been limited to the 2007 drought in the southeastern United States. A similar situation occurred in August 2006 along the Mississippi River (Exelon Quad Cities Illinois plant). Other plants in Illinois and some in Minnesota were also affected (Union of Concerned Scientists 2007). The production of gas from oil shale and biofuels has exacerbated the issues in the Plains states (Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), Upper Rocky Mountains, and the Ohio River Valley (Hightower, 2009; Kimmel and Veil, 2009). DOE (2006) specifically identifies where new power plants have been opposed because of potential negative impacts on water supplies (Tucson Citizen, 2002; Reno-Gazette Journal, 2005; U.S. Water News Online, 2002 and 2003; Curlee, 2003). Recent droughts and emerging limitations of water resources have many states, including Texas, South Dakota, Wisconsin, and Tennessee, scrambling to develop water use priorities for different water use sectors (Clean Air Task Force, 2004a; Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, 2005; GAO, 2003; Curlee, 2003; Hoffman, 2004; U.S. Water News Online, 2003)
So what is currently happening? Current legislation is mostly silent on the power-water nexus. This is not to say that little is being done. A number of federal agencies are actively involved with the power-water nexus, including DOE, via NETL, and NREL, NOAA, USEPA via water Wise and Energy Star, BLM though management of land and water resources in the west, USDA and Department of the Interior/USGS which inventories water supplies. However, DOE (2006) noted that collaboration on energy and water resource planning is needed among federal, regional, and state agencies as well as with industry and other stakeholders. GAO (2012a) notes that the growth in water and energy demands is occurring at a time when the nation’s supplies are stressed by a growing population, a variety of new and changing uses, and environmental challenges such as climate change, but none of the involved agencies consistently or strategically collaborate on to ensure a harmonized approach to energy and water resource planning.
Effective integrated energy and water policy planning will require identifying the individual and cumulative impacts that power plants have on water resources and the vulnerabilities of specific power plants to changes in water resources (Wilkinson 2007, Scott and Pasqualetti 2010;Stillwell et al 2011; Kenney and Wilkinson 2012). From a systems perspective, a sustainable society is one that has in place the institutional, social and informational mechanisms to keep in check the feedback loops that cause exponential population growth and natural capital depletion. A sustainable world is not a rigid one, where population or productivity is held constant. Yet sustainability does require rules, laws and social constraints that are recognized and adhered to by all (Meadows, 2005). Integrated planning implies removing silos, working collaboratively, and using resources wisely. It implies using the combined intelligence of multiple parties in the planning and fulfillment of goals. It implies linking a vision, priorities, people, and institutions into a flexible system of evaluation and decision-making. In other words, leadership.
Details on refrences available
Outlook for Utilities is Up, but Leadership needed for Infrastructure Investments
The magazine Utility Contractor suggests that 2013 may be much better than 2012 from a utility construction perspective. In Fact they suggest a 13% increase in utility construction, although the bulk of that is in the power industry, not the water industry. Their projections are for water utility infrastructure spending to remain roughly constant from 2012, a slight uptick from the recession years. At the same time, the US water infrastructure bill was suggested by Public Works magazine to exceed $1 trillion over the next 30 years, requiring over $30 billion to be spend annually on upgrades. This is more than double their estimates of current funding.. Many of these upgrades are pipe. Much of the piping infrastructure in America is over 50 years old, and the condition may be unclear (unless you dig it up, you don’t know much). But piping projects are hard to fund, because no one sees the pipe, only the failures. As time goes on, the condition continues to deteriorate.
Much of the reason that water utility infrastructure is not expected to increase is that revenues are not expected to climb significantly to allow for the expansion of capital funding despite historically low borrowing rates and lowered costs of construction. The reason: many public sector utilities, which accounts for many of the larger systems, have been caught in one or more of several traps: deferring capital to pay current expenses without raising rates, revenue losses from defaults on housing, use of utility fees to overcome ad valorem tax losses in the general fund, or political pressure to reduce rates. All four cases can be crippling to the utility because it not only removes revenues today, but likely will result in a continuing practice in the future.
The good news in the revenues are rising, and that unemployment is down nationally despite the loss of 276,000 state and local jobs in 2011. But since governments tend to lag the private sector in recovery, and we now have 34 straight months the private sector adding jobs, governments should start to see improved conditions in 2013. Salaries are up, revenues are up a little and jobs are being filled, but what does this mean to infrastructure? The question is why the projections are for no increase in spending. Water and sewer utilities owned by governments, are caught in the middle of the political process which lacks leadership. These utilities are set up as enterprise funds, whereby revenues are gained from provision of a measurable service. As a result they are designed to be operated more like a business, than a government. But if your utility funds are altered through the political process, this can frustrate the efforts to run an efficient and effective business-like organization, which may mean the status quo, which is not investments in infrastructure beyond absolutely essential and emergency measures. The question is where is the leadership to reverse this trend? Unfortunately the political leadership focus is on elections, 2 to 4 years out, not the 20 or 30 year life of the utility’s assets. As a result, short term benefits sacrifice long-term needs.
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If you are a person who wants to be a leader, you also need to think about the long-term impacts of your plans/policies and actions. How will they be perceived 10 or 20 years out? How will your decisions impact the course of the organization? For utilities how has your tenure added value to the utility, whether that value is treatment capacity, public health protection or reliability of the system. And how is it measure, since monetary value is not the only means to add value. Keep in mind no one remembers the guy who did not raise rates, only the person who did not plan to replace the infrastructure that failed. That’s a legacy leadership issue. One thing many people do not understand is that while we live in the moment, it is how people view our actions afterwards. It is why it is so easy to see leadership after the fact, but sometimes very difficult during the event. The question is, how to we overcome the restrictions caused by the 2008 recession? That’s where leadership comes to play.
