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https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/mar/10/coronavirus-us-map-confirmed-cases-covid-19

Of course the issue is whether, because of the lack of access to testing or lack of test kits, the numbers on the map are way below what the real numbers are, as some are suggesting.  I heard on commentator yesterday (epidemiologist) who suggested that many pneumonia and respiratory cases this winter may be related, but few were tested for coronavirus, so it may be far more widespread than the map.  Stay healthy and take precautions.

Coal is not coming back.  China and India will stop buying coal in the future

Over 7 million jobs have been lost in manufacturing.  Yet manufacturing has doubled since 1979.  That means the robots have taken over.  The manual assembly line is not coming back.

Neither are jobs in textiles which are more efficiently manufactured with machines

GM builds more cars today than in the 1970s with 600,000 less workers.  That trend will continue.

Technology will make the robots even more efficient, which may bring companies to America to invest and build.

The economy in the world cannot increase faster than population growth.  Hence there are winners and losers.

The world-wide economy means that natural disaster can disrupt the supply chain.

Manufacturing growth, orders and short-term borrowing costs are the best indicators of economic health.

The stock market lies to you about the economy.  It reacts, it does not lead.

If the US population growth slows (as it has), and that loss of growth cannot be made up by immigrants (as it has in the past), our economic growth will slow.

The 1970s stagflation was caused by running out of markets to sell to.  Hence Nixon opened up China’s billion customers.

A trade deficit means we are buying more than we are selling.  But the revenues are neutral so we are trading something other than goods.

The steel industry is over 40% larger than is was in 1997, despite losing 265,000 jobs

The climate is changing – and we have no good answers to alter the course

There is no planet we can conveniently escape to.

DISCUSS…

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Railroads are noting that 2020 will be a challenge due to weak manufacturing, low economic growth abroad that limits exports and the potential uncertainty global supply chains.  Railroad traffic were down nearly 8% from 2019 to 2018.  When coal was removed, the drop was over 6%.  That is on top of other challenges the see.  They are also concerned that changes to the climate may create added challenges.

Along with railroads, college investments funds have slowed as well.  There are an estimated 100 universities have endowments in excess of $1 billion (led by Harvard at $40 million. Their returns in 2019 – 6% which sound great, but is less than prior years and was accomplished by risking their endowments in the stock market and less than the 10.4% earned in the stock market.  These schools use and average of $30 million per year to cover their annual budgets.  An economic downturn would create a challenge for them.  Colleges are also facing a tax on their investment earnings imposed by Congress in 2017.

Some economists have argued we are due for a recession.  Startups and tech growth has also slowed.  Travel is an issue as wee as we are still trying to figure out the impact of the Corona virus on the economy.   Is the spring the time and are the public utility systems ready for it?

our fau engineers in action bridge team has landed in south africa on their way to the bush of eswatini to construct a pedestrian bridge they designed. Nice!!

I have often wondered why it seemed appropriate to store waste materials on the side of a river.  There has been a number of incidents in recent years – the gold mine waste in the Animis River in Colorado, and coal ash spills in Tennessee and West Virginia.  The latter caused a large percentage of the people in West Virginia to lose their water supply for months.  Historically the waste ponds were conveniently downhill from mines and power plants, but the logic behind it makes no sense.  No one asked “What could possibly happen if the “dam” broke?”  The results are potentially catastrophic to the ecosystem and utilities have no ability to treat the water to remove these tiny articles – filters won’t do it an membranes will foul.  Neither resolves the problem.  Add to it that USEPA have levied the fewest enforcement action and fines in 25 years, a trend that has been ongoing tor the past 3 years.   Only 75 cases were files in 2019.

The good news that in spite of the lack of federal efforts, some states have been undertaking the effort.  Duke Power and the State of North Carolina have reached an agreement to remove 80 tons of material at its last 9 coal plants, adding to the 126 million tons removed earlier.  Duke Power has 15 years to accomplish the work.  Other states, in the southeast have been making the push. Only Alabama Power has not agreed to remove coal ash.

The question is what happens in the west where mine tailings and mine waste ponds, like the one causing the Animis River issue, remain a threat to water supplies and ecosystem.  The Richmond Mine in California, Summitville in Colorado, Brohm n South Dakota, and more have potential risks to the public  the reality is that  while the mining has brought economic opportunities to the west for over 150 years, metals, acids and salts are left behind leaving the  taxpayers with the bill to clean up the mess.

The issue for all of us, including water systems, is that we all share the same air and water.  When the water or air gets polluted, those that suffer are the downstream users which are often water customers.  We cannot isolate ourselves from water issues, nor allow those that pollute the waters to run form their responsibility.  That is what those pesky environmental regulations that many complain about, are supposed to accomplish.  Unlike the EU though, American politicians are not of one mind that pollution protection is in the interests of the general public over the rights of individualism. Some argue that pollution protection is anti-capitalism and thereby hurts the econo9my.  But if is impacts public health and welfare, does that not trump the argument about economic growth.  Doesn’t the costs of health impacts need to be taken into account?  And since it should, when are mine operators, past and present going to address their streamside problems?