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Tag Archives: decision making

2008 Economic impact on Utilities

May 15, 2016
economy, infrastructure, Leadership, local government, management, politics, Risk, Risk Management, social vunerability, sustainability, water sewer management
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WTPspiractorI have a question – what was the impact of the 2008 economic crisis on water and sewer infrastructure funding?  I have a hypothesis – the amount of monies transferred to non-water and sewer operations increased.  Is the hypothesis true?

The next question to answer is that if transfer monies increased, did they decrease once property values started to come back?  My hypothesis is no.

Finally what impact does this have on water and sewer infrastructure going forward?  I suspect that the answer is that we underfund infrastructure or justify the lack of funding through actuarial means (I actually had a utility director tell me that his pipes were designed to last 250 years.  Seriously.  Of course that is nonsense, but it is a means to keep your need for replacement funding down).

I have a student and we are working on these issues now.  We are going to gather data from several hundred utilities over the next six months, crunch 11 years of data and let’s find out.  If you or your clients are interested in adding your data to the mix, please send it to me.  I need 2005 -2015 expenditure info.  Also some operational data like ADF, MDF, miles of pipe, customers, treatment type and CCR. We will be publishing the results.   Should be interesting……

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Reserves for Government

September 22, 2015
borrowing for infrastructure, economy, finance, politics, Reserve Funding, reserves, Revenues
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Your grandma always told you to save money for a rainy day.  She wasn’t really talking about rainy days, but days when you had less or no income.  The press talks about the huge percentage of Americans that have little or no savings, and how compared to other countries, we are at a disadvantage during economic times.  A huge problem is that the same argument can be translated to governments, which must provide services, and often more services during economic downturns.  But if they have no savings, how are they to accomplish this?  They do not want to raise taxes and fees in down situations, so won’t the loss of services just make things worse?

A recent PEW reports suggests that states “had about half the reserves necessary to address budget gaps during the first year of the Great Recession.  The 50 states had about $60 billion set aside in the summer of 2008, but in fiscal 2009, budget gaps across the country totaled $117 billion, about twice what states had in reserve. The budget gaps continued to grow in 2010 and many states struggled with shortfalls for years afterward.  Bad news, but the news really does not improve.  They report that 37 states have legal caps that prevent them from saving enough to weather recessions or even enough to substantially offset revenue losses, and most of those are based on some percentage of the prior year’s revenues.  Why?  Short-term views?  Most governments figure on keeping enough cash on hand to pay bills during tax seasons. That accounts for 60-90 days of funds.  Far too little for dealing with economic impacts.  Far too few state governments recognize the importance of saving, figuring that cutting taxes during time of plenty and giving back to taxpayers is a better use of funds.  Then it is someone else’s issue when the next economic hiccup occurs – and it will.  Unless you raise your cap now as Minnesota and Virginia have recently done.

But the issue is not just a state issue.  It is a local and a utility issue as well.  Local governments are closer to the ground, have less leeway in their budgets and often have far too little funding as a result of resistance to raising property taxes, user fees and over-dependence on state shared sales tax, which often drops precipitously during a recession.  Same goes for sin and gas tax dependence.  When people slow smoking, or as oil prices drop, so do revenues.  Ask Alaska, Louisiana, Kansas, Texas, North Dakota and others that are oil rich states about their budget this past year.  The legislatures were begging Grover Norquist to let them out of their no tax increase pledges.  He said no of course, because he doesn’t want government to function properly.  So those legislators were stuck in the either “do the right thing” or “get whacked by Grover in the next election” conundrum.  You know what they did because they want to get re-elected  That doesn’t help the citizens of those states.  Standard & Poor’s revised its outlook on Alaska’s general obligation and appropriation-backed debt from stable to negative. That will cost them in the future. St. Louis, Moody’s downgraded the city’s credit rating one step to A1, citing “the city’s weak socioeconomic profile; reliance on earnings taxes which are due for voter reauthorization in 2016.”  Diversity in industry and taxes is beneficial.  Too often this gets lost in the desire to do more with less, but doing more means you need more funding!  And you need to collect those savings as grandma counselled!

Is this a good idea?

September 5, 2015
Leadership, Water Funding, water sewer management, water supplies
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In the vein of more growth is always better mentality, the following struck me as I was in Colorado last month.  Front Range politics are a big deal in Colorado because virtually all the people in the state live within 60 miles of Denver.  The following table outlines the populations of the Front Range counties and their growth trends over the past three years.  Big growth.  So the local politicians are happy.  Growth is good.

The Front Range Urban Corridor
County 2012 Estimate 2010 Census Change
Larimer County 310,487 299,630 +3.62%
Weld County 263,691 252,825 +4.30%
Boulder County 305,318 294,567 +3.65%
City and County of Denver 634,265 600,158 +5.68%
Arapahoe County 595,546 572,003 +4.12%
Jefferson County 545,358 534,543 +2.02%
Adams County 459,598 441,603 +4.07%
Douglas County 298,215 285,465 +4.47%
City and County of Broomfield 58,298 55,889 +4.31%
Elbert County 23,383 23,086 +1.29%
Park County 16,029 16,206 −1.09%
Clear Creek County 9,026 9,088 −0.68%
Gilpin County 5,491 5,441 +0.92%
El Paso County 644,964 622,263 +3.65%
Teller County 23,389 23,350 +0.17%

Then I read an article by Bruce Finley of the The Denver Post entitled “Colorado shies from big fix as proliferating people seek more water.’  The concept is to continue the state’s tradition of moving water from the wetter west side of the Rockies to the drier east side.  The current fix is to build a huge reservoir by Dinosaur National Monument (in the middle of the west Colorado desert), then divert 97 billion gallons a year from the Yampa River through a 250-mile pipeline across the Continental Divide to the Front Range to defray Colorado’s projected 2050 water shortfall of 163 billion gallons.  The Yampa Pumpback would be the 31st cross divide diversion Colorado has built since the 1930s.

colorado water

Now the plan has hit a snag, whereby the EIS for the project indicates to meet needs, it would be the Front Range that bears the risks of not enough water in dry years as a part of negotiations for water entitlements under the interstate treaty that divvies the Colorado River.  Once that is resolved, the project would cost billions and take years to construct.  Ok, the Front Range is water limited. And we all know it.  The problem is people like Northern Water manager Eric Wilkinson who the article quotes as saying. “With the number of people coming here, we’re going to have to look at all alternatives. Conservation isn’t the silver bullet; it’s also going to take additional infrastructure…. These people need water, and they’re willing to pay for that water.”  In other words, we need more growth!  So in the meantime, development competes with agriculture or replaces agriculture on the semi-arid high plains.  The article suggests that cities and industries seeking more water would absorb hundreds of thousands of acres of agricultural land water rights if unable to divert more across mountains, something the governor is a little concerned about.  They would just buy them out.  So less agriculture when we probably will need that land later.

So in that vein, I noted the following at the airport.  One is a nice field of grain. Golden in the summer sun.  Across the street, the golden field is being converted to 300 houses.  You can see the pipe and the equipment.  And my question is – Is this really a good idea?

photo15b

photo15e

Colorado Spill

August 21, 2015
Environment, ethics, finance, health risks, infrastructure, Leadership, Monitoring Water, planning, power, power-water nexus, Risk, Risk Management, rivers, Uncategorized, water quality, What could possibly go wrong?
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In an interesting twist of fate, USEPA caused a spill on the Animas River when a staffer accidently breached a dike holding back a solution of heavy metals at the Gold King mine because the misjudged the pressure behind the dike.  Pressure?  The spill flowed at 500 gpm (0.7 MGD), spilling yellow water spilled into the river.  Downstream, the plume has travelled through parts of Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, and will ultimately hit Lake Mead.  Officials, residents, and farmers are outraged.  People were told not to drink the water because the yellow water carried at least 200 times more arsenic and 3,500 times more lead than is considered safe for drinking. The conspiracy theorists are out.  The pictures are otherworldly.

colorado-mine-spillRayna Willhite holds a bottle of water she collected form the Animas River north of Durango Colo., on Thursday, August 6th, 2015. About a million gallons of toxic mine waste emptied out of the Gold King Mine north of Silverton that eventually made it into the Animas River. (Jerry McBride/Durango Herald via AP)

0807 colo spill epa-spill-

But they are all missing the point, and the problem.  This is one of hundreds of “legacy disasters” waiting to happen.  We are just surprised when they actually do.  A legacy disaster is one that is predicated on events that have happened in the past, that can impact the future.  In some cases the far past.  There are two big ones that linger over communities all over the west and the southeast – mines and coal.  Now don’t get me wrong, we have used coal and needed metals form mines.  That’s ok.  But the problem is no one has dealt with the effects of mining or coal ash for many years.  And then people are upset.  Why?  We can expect these issues to happen.

One major problem is that both are often located adjacent to or uphill from rivers.  That’s a disaster waiting to happen.  The King Gold mine is just the latest.  We had recent coal ash spills in Kingston, Tennessee (TVA, 2008) and the Dan River in 2014 (Duke Power). The Dan River spill was 30-40,000 tons.  Kingston cleanup has exceeded a billion dollars.  Coal ash is still stored at both places.  Next to rivers.  We had the federal government build ion exchange facilities in Leadville, CO and Idaho Springs, CO to deal with leaking water from mine tailings from the mountains. Examples are in the hundreds.  The photos are of the two coal spills, mine tailings that have been sitting the ground for 140 years in Leadville and one of the stormwater ponds – water is red in Leadville, not yellow.

kingston_coalash POLLUTE-master675 IMG_4803 IMG_6527 (2015_03_08 17_53_48 UTC)

When the disaster does occur, the federal government ends up fixing it, as opposed those responsible who are usually long gone or suddenly bankrupt, so it is no surprise that EPA and other regulatory folks are often very skeptical of mining operations, especially when large amounts of water are involved.  We can predict that a problem will happen, so expensive measures are often required to treat the waste and minimize the potential for damage from spills.  That costs money, but creates jobs.

For those long gone or bankrupt problems, Congress passed the Superfund legislation 40 years ago to provide cleanup funds.  But Congress deleted funding for the program in the early 2000s because they did not want to continue taxing the business community (mines, power plants, etc.).  So EPA uses ARRA funds from 2009.  And funding is down from historical levels, which makes some businesses and local communities happy.  The spectre of Superfund often impacts potential developers and buyers who are concerned about impacts to future residents.  We all remember Love Canals and Erin Brockovich.  Lack of development is “bad.”  They ignore the thousands or jobs and $31 billion in annual economic activity that cleanup creates, but it all about perception.

But squabbling about Superfund ignores the problem.  We continue to stockpile coal ash near rivers and have legacy mine problems.  Instead we should be asking different questions:

WHY are these sites permitted to store ash, tailings, and liquids near water bodies in the first place?  EPA would not be inspecting them if the wastes were not there.

WHY aren’t the current operators of these mines and power plants required to treat and remove the wastes immediately like wastewater operators do?  You cannot have millions of gallons of water, or tons of coal ash appear overnight on a site, which means these potential disasters are allowed to fester for long periods of time.  Coal ash is years.  Mine tailings… well, sometimes hundreds of years.

One resident on the news was reported to have said “Something should be done, something should be done to those who are responsible!”  Let’s start with not storing materials on site, next to rivers.  Let’s get the waste off site immediately and disposed of in a safe manner.  Let’s recover the metals.  Let’s start with Gold King mine.  Or Duke Power.  Or TVA.

Some hot topics/discussions of interest – more to come

June 30, 2015
Uncategorized
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Big week – water and otherwise.  Here are a couple discussion boards/blogs that might be of interest to follow as they evolve:

https://www.linkedin.com/grp/post/733277-6020246563895390212

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015WR017351/full?wol1URL=/doi/10.1002/2015WR017351/full&wol1URL=/doi/10.1002/2015WR017351/full&regionCode=US-FL&identityKey=58977fc5-ec07-41a1-b4d0-a91e903b5f5b&isReportingDone=true

And an ethical consideration to contemplate:

  • There is an interesting ethical issues that arises in this discussion also. Engineers are entrusted to protect the public health, safety and welfare. When there were few people, projects did not impact many so little thought was given to the “what could possible happen” question. We are still paying for that. Now that there are more people, conflicts become more likely and more frequent. Most times engineers are not asked to evaluate the unintended consequences of the projects they build. Only to build them to protect the public health safety and welfare while doing so, but from a specific vantage point. So if you know a project will create a long-term consequence, what action should you take? There are many water supply examples, where we have engineered solutions that have brought water or treated water to allow development. South Florida is a great example – we drained half a state. But no one asked if that development was good or appropriate – we drained off a lot of our water supply in the process and messed up the ecological system that provided a lot of the recharge. No one asked in the 1930 if this was a good idea. Designing/building cities in the desert, designing systems that pump groundwater that does not recharge, or design systems that cannot be paid for by the community – we know what will happen at some point. So the question is whether there is a conflict between engineers meeting their obligations to the public and economic interests in such cases?

    And finally, when considering the ethical issue:

    http://bizlifes.net/discovery/855-27-images-that-prove-that-we-are-in-danger-7-left-my-mouth-open.html

Marketing and the Utility

June 9, 2015
local government, Marketing water, politics, public relations, Responsibility, sanitary sewer, Uncategorized
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So I am training a group of public officials about utilities. Many have limited experience; others much more so. The interesting question that came up is how these officials should communicate with their customers. Interesting question and one that often receives little thoughts. So I thought their thoughts might be enlightening, keeping in mind that I have abbreviated some of them, and this was a discussion. Here are the thoughts they provided, in no particular order:

“Not the newspaper, most residents do not receive the newspaper anymore”

“Who are our customers and how do they communicate? Until you can answer that, you will not reach them. Ask them.”

“If 37% percent of your customers are direct deposit – should we send them direct mailings?” Response: “Yes! They will not think it is a bill and they might read it.”

“Most people discard bill stuffers without reading them . That wastes a lot of time and money.”

“We have a Facebook page, but we don’t just talk utilities. We talk about things that might interst them like strawberry shortcake recipes and current community events.”

“We use twitter and Facebook”

“We have a website, but we found the website was useless if we did not keep it current constantly. It takes effort and someone with that responsibility to accomplish that.”

“We use Facebook to get people interested, then use it to direct them to our website.”

“Every utility should have a public relations person that deals with media, and can brand your utility to the public.”

“Understand your demographics and then figure out how they communicate – phone, twitter, Facebook, on line, etc. Maybe all of these, interconnected. You can find local people who will do this for your professionally. The results are worth the investment.”

“Radio is useless, just like the paper. Avoid the television because they really only want to report the bad stuff.”

“Blogs tied to websites and Facebook are helpful.”

“Many venues are needed – make the message the same.”

“Ask the young people in your community – they will know how the reach the residents.”

“Don’t focus just on utility issues, add content on topics they might be interested in.”

“Public relations is as important as providing good service.   It is part of your job.”

“worth every dollar spent.”

Interesting isn’t it. I wonder if the mainstream media will take note? And I wonder how many utilities do not have these things and will consider it as a part of the coming budget cycle?

In the vein of “What could possibly go wrong ….”

May 23, 2015
water quality, water supplies
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check this out – http://www.laboratoryequipment.com/news/2015/05/home-range-new-wyoming-law-makes-science-open-land-illegal#.VVNg-x-tFlk.linkedin

This could be really serious.  For example, your water system gets contaminated by something.  People  get sick.  We figure out the problem is in the raw water.  Someone is responsible.   But exactly how does one figure out where and who is responsible for impacting the  water systems and downstream users?  How does one comply with Safe Drinking Water Act  provisions for watersheds, or better what does this mean for utilities?  And what could possibly occur on land that cannot be “tested?”

What could possible go wrong?!

Part 2 Financing Infrastructure

May 19, 2015
borrowing for infrastructure, debt funding, Detroit, Economic Bubbles, engineering, finance, funding, Water Funding
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The true risk to the community of pipe damage is underestimated and the potential for economic disruption increases.  The question is how do we lead our customers to investing in their/our future?  That is the question as the next 20 years play out. Making useful assumptions about increases in demands, prices, inflation rates etc. are key to useful projections and long-term sustainability. Building too much or too little capacity for example can have disastrous consequences (to the ratepayers on the former, to the local economy for the latter).

Getting funding relies on economic strength, a problem of you are in a depressed area (Detroit) or a boom that could crash at any time (North Dakota).  P3 opportunities are available for cash strapped communities but they come with a cost.  Risk must be allocated fairly – the private community will not take on too much risk without increasing costs significantly. Loss of control is one of those risk conversion issues.  Extensive planning and feasibility analyses should be expected – far more scrutiny than most utilities are used to.  The economic strength of the community is important to private investors.

In a prior blog we talked about the boom towns of North Dakota.  Things were booming in 2013 but the downturn in oil prices may get ugly.  The need for more fracking wells may have decreased (at least temporarily) and the decrease in the oil and gas costs has cut into local revenues, so is this is the time to keep planning for the boom?  South Florida did this in the early 2000s – and well, that real estate boom put quite a dent in the economy and population estimates for 2020 and 2030.  The balloon popped and so did the economy.  South Florida had the resiliency to bounce back because of weather and proximity to South America.  We have seen the result to an industrial economy – where a community relies on industry, well industry can be fickle.  Ask Detroit.  Or Cleveland.  Or any number of other Rust Belt cities.  Now they have infrastructure, but much of it is underused.
So while the Plains states plan for the boom, the boom has settled in some places. Already the oil and gas industry has shed 100,000 jobs (many high salary).  Texas, Kansas, North Dakota and Oklahoma are facing financial challenges in 2015 due to funding losses.  Alaska is dipping into reserves.  But that doesn’t mean the results of the 2010-2014 boom are not continuing, or at least portions of them.  Frack water continues to be discharged to local wastewater systems, but the revenues to pay for the needed upgrades is lacking.  Effluent limits for nitrogen and TOC for some rivers have decreased as a result of constant increased loading to the streams (more flow increases total loads, so if flows remain the same, the concentrations must decrease to maintain total loading).  The costs to reduce ammonia, for example from 10 mg/l to 2 or 3 mg/L can be $1-2/1000 gallon – over 50% or more of the current cost for treatment.

So is it a surprise that some communities fight the boom times?  Booms create disruption and uncertainly, and a need for technology (and costs).  Maybe stability does matter, as it can contain costs and treatment requirements.  However the boom can help communities in financial distress.  Detroit and Flint would love a boom – both have the infrastructure in place to support it as opposed to rural communities in the Plains.  But that’s is a key – they already HAVE the infrastructure in place.  The Plains, well, do not.

There is a lot of older, underutilized infrastructure out there.  Detroit, Flint, Cleveland, Akron, Toledo and Philadelphia are among the older industrial cities that have stable populations – people that live there most of their lives, have a trained and educated workforce, and normally have lots of water and infrastructure, and lots of potential employees, all of which are underutilized and at risk due to economic losses. But the booms rarely go to older cities. How that is?  Is this a leadership issue?  Convenience?  Quick profits?  And how long will the boom last?  Is it a matter of lack of understanding or regulations that creates the boom?  A combination of factors?  A better PR program?

Remember we all play defense.  Industry does not.  Industry plays offense all the time.  The private sector mode is play offense.  Get the message out.  Frame the message.  Win the game.  Is winning the game at any cost the right answer?  For boomers it is.  What about the rest of us?

A Computer Rant

May 6, 2015
communciations, Leadership
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I got hacked again this past week.  I had the week nicely structured to stay in my office and get lots of work done.  Things I had been trying to complete for the past couple week.  This is the second time I have been hacked with this computer and I have only owned it for 3 months.  So the first hack involved someone diverting my email for 6 hours.  I could not get it back, but I stopped the diversion (I think) with the help of ATT.  Who knows what information was transmitted other than a lots of what is really spam.

Ok, so then I start getting these phone calls from “Microsoft Windows” noting errors they are receiving from my computer.  Now most you recall that Microsoft used to ask if you wanted them to be notified of errors, but since everyone said yes, they now just do it automatically.  Mostly the “Microsoft Windows” guys left messages on my cell phone since that is the number registered with Microsoft.  I picked up the phone one time, but the “Microsoft Windows” guy could not tell me which of my computers was sending the messages (I have more than one).

But that did not stop the calls which have accelerated of late.  So I get another call that I answer (from a number in Washington state) from “Martin” with “Microsoft Windows”  who, without accessing my computer, knows over 9,000 errors had been sent, starting the day I bought the computer.  He also knows the software serial information, computer serial numbers, etc., all of which he can recite over the phone and ask me to check to verify he is with “Microsoft Windows” because otherwise he would not have that information.  And then he notes that because the 25 digit codes for Windows 8 is not visible, “Microsoft” will cause a key lock on my computer – a message that I again could verify without him accessing the computer.  And of course that’s how he tries to convince me he is calling from “Microsoft Windows.”

NOTE:  Miscrosoft DOES NOT Call you – it is a scam (see the internet).  So I have the hacker on the phone.  He emails me his info (of course he has my registered email like everything else), which I note says pcsync.org, not “Microsoft Windows.” I asked and I was suddenly disconnected.  And within the hour, the computer is locked.  Clearly the acceleration of calls was because the hackers knew about the key lock because they installed it and they want to get to the last minute.  Now Martin called back about 20 times in the next 2 hours trying get me, but the number he left is not valid (despite his website listing it). And of course he will fix the problem for $239 plus whatever else he can sell you.  That’s the hacker scam – create a problem than get you to pay to fix it.

And when it locks – the result is a window that asks for Startup password – which Microsoft will tell you, indicates you have been hacked.  Except, then Microsoft says they need the 25 digit code for the operating software to fix your computer.  “But you need to get that from Dell” even though Dell only loads the software – you need to register it with Microsoft to make it work.  So I called Dell, and the first person says sure they can give it to you, but the second “no they need to send CDs.”

OK they are both wrong.  With Windows 8.1 the code is not on your computer if pre-loaded.  And of course Dell does not give you a recovery disk when you buy it.  Dell knows about the code.  So does Microsoft.  So an hour plus wasted there with two good organizations who clearly do not communicate.  So I am shut out of the new computer and the email.

Good news though is that maybe 10 years ago I was advised by Gateway (the old cow computers) to use iyogi.com to fix a prior issue.  So 13 hours later and lots of time with Amit, we are sort of back up running.  And of course iyogi knows about the code issue that Dell and Microsoft mis-advised me on and told me the story above.  And yet we both wondered how pcsync.org (the hackers) was tracking my computer error messages to Microsoft from day 1?  Have they hacked Microsoft?  Dell?

And the next day one of my friends, in talking about this says – “Hey wait, I keep having pop-ups for pcsync on my computer also.”  And later in the day, another says the same thing –“ pcsync is on mine too.”  And neither has a Dell – but they do have Microsoft Windows 7 or later.  And makes me wonder, who is taking responsibility for protecting the consumers here?  Clearly the computer manufacturers do not take responsibility.  Maybe they can’t.  Microsoft doesn’t appear to either, so that leaves us . . . . . vulnerable.  Mr. Gates you have a great operating system, but this problem costs us lost productivity, money, time, irritation…even when you have all kinds of anti-maleware and anti-virals on your computer.  If the hackers can get in day 1, how do you stop that?  And apparently the maleware doesn’t see it (hint).

So the questions:

  • Does “Microsoft Windows” know about this?
  • If so, why have they not fixed it?
  • Do the computer manufacturers know this issue occurs?
  • Why have they not talked to Microsoft about it?
  • Why doesn’t the maleware address it?
  • How are they getting in?
  • Is Microsoft hacked – perhaps the biggest hack of all?
  • And why have the internet police addressed pcsync and their ilk? It is all over the internet!!!!!

Clearly the penalties for hacking are not nearly severe enough.  And from a law enforcement and cyber security perspective, we clearly lack the resources to protect individuals, so beware!

And if you see pcsync – call iyogi or someone who can help.  Quickly!!

Climate and Health

April 24, 2015
Climate, health risks, Risk, social vunerability, stormwater, water sewer management, water supplies
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A project I am currently involved with looks at the impacts of climate change on public health in southeast Florida.  The initial grant focused on looking at socially vulnerable populations and the impact on chronic diseases these groups from climate change.  The question was whether climate change, which in southeast Florida is basically sea level rise, would have an impact on health issues.  On the face of it, the correlation between chronic health conditions and climate seems tenuous although the statistics support the link between chronic health impacts and socially vulnerable populations.  But what is interesting is that in general, the climate vulnerable topography and the socially vulnerable people do not correlate.  This may be a southeast Florida issue, but it is the less socially vulnerable who live in the climate vulnerable topography.

Those familiar with the history of southeast Florida know that makes sense because of the beaches.  The beaches are topographically vulnerable but eh wealthy want to live there anyway. But the problem is more pervasive.  The data actually can be mined further to reveal that the older homes (1940s-1960s), generally smaller and of lower value, were traditionally built on the high ground.  Turns out our ancestors were a little smarter than we thought – they actually thought this out.  Aside from Henry Flagler building the railroad on the high ground, most of the cities were located similarly – on the coastal ridge.  Drainage of the Everglades permitted the western migration of residences – newer and larger, but at lower elevation and mostly reliant on drainage across the ridge to the ocean via canals.  But as sea level rises, the water moves more slowly.

The question that must be asked then is what happens as this housing stock ages?  We already see some newer communities, primarily built for retirees, moving to relieve themselves of the 55+ designations to allow the housing stock to be sold – the children of the retirees don’t want the property and desire to sell it – often quickly.  To increase speed of sales (and ultimately retaining some value), eliminating the 55+ opens younger families to move in.  However the lower value of the properties makes them conducive to migration of people who are social vulnerability, so migration may be toward social vulnerable people moving to topographically challenged property.  That portends poorly for the link between climate and health in the future.

Two issues arise from the research.  First future health vulnerability from climate may be more related to vectors and waterborne disease than chronic health effects.  That expands the health vulnerability to all populations.  The second issue is that storm water, sewer roadway and water infrastructure may relieve some pressure on these topographically vulnerable properties, but the people who are moving to then will have significantly less ability to pay for those improvements, creating a political conundrum that will that a significant amount  of leadership to overcome.  That means that resiliency must be built into infrastructure and redevelopment projects now, to address future conditions.  Building in resiliency is not currently being considered by local planners and engineers because the situation is not well understood and a 50 year planning horizon is not the norm.  Also, it would likely create a firestorm of fuss from developers who would pay the costs, which discourages good planning.

Finally, if things accelerate, wealthier parties may begin to see a retreat from vulnerable eastern beaches to higher ground as being a reasonable concept.  However the high ground is currently occupied by socially vulnerable people, creating a potential area of conflict over the fate of displaced residents who’s social status may force them toward the vacant, topographically vulnerable properties.  This is a future problem for planners, developers and officials approving new development with an eye to displacement a concept not in the current thought process.  Thinking about vulnerability means a lot of infrastructure must not only be constructed, but maintained meaning local public works and utility budgets will need to increase in kind.  That means higher rates and charges to populations that may have limits to their ability to pay   Stay tuned…..

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